What should have been a red wave, was a red ripple. What was set up to be a monumental victory for the Trump Republican Party, was a whiff and there is a lot of finger-pointing going around. Most of the blame is being directed at Donald Trump for pushing poor-quality candidates in the primaries that were not ready for prime time in the general elections.
While it was a much better night than expected for Democrats nationally, it was not all roses for the Party. There were some missteps and lost opportunities that if handled differently could have yielded an even stronger night. It was a big mistake by the DNC and other campaign funding sources not to pour more money into the Ohio race. Tim Ryan, an excellent moderate candidate, ran a great race and could have beaten the flawed Vance if more had been invested. Democrats lost some seats in the blue states of California and New York which will probably, in the end, cost them control of the House of Representatives by a very slim margin. The primary reason for this was not confronting the crime and inflation narrative head-on. The poster child for an ass-whooping was the anemic Democratic performance of Charlie Crist and Val Demings in my once-purple home of Florida. On paper, both were good centrist candidates but the DeSantis / Rubio big money & fear-mongering machines were too much to overcome. They were unfairly painted as soft on crime and too close to Biden and Pelosi and that message won out in the TV ads. Couple that with the demographic shift of Florida voters solidly to the right over the last decade and Crist and Demings never really had a shot. The margin of victory was stunning though.
All that being said, Joe Biden’s moderate, common sense legislative successes and emphasis on saving democracy and protecting women’s reproductive rights had an impact in key swing races. His flurry of legislative successes over the summer and into the fall – passing the infrastructure bill, the Chips Act, the Inflation Reduction Act, and the gun law – are tangible things that impact people’s lives and registered with voters.
While the economy (which is doing remarkably well with unemployment historically low and a steady estimated GDP rate of 2.8% for 2022) and inflation were top-of-mind issues for many voters, most grew to understand that the causes for inflation were complicated and many, including the war in Ukraine and pandemic supply chain issues. From looking at the exit polls and the turnout numbers for young people and suburban women, the issues of defending democracy and women’s reproductive rights weighed much heavier on voters’ minds than the pundits expected.
Donald Trump’s endorsement, on whole, did not help and even hurt in many key swing races. With a few exceptions, like JD Vance’s win in predictably-red Ohio, his candidates mostly lost up and down the ticket including all 5 of his races that were in key swing districts. Voters on whole rejected the extremist MAGA message.
Doug Mastriano lost the governors race in PA, Mehmet Oz lost his senate race in PA; Walker is losing and going to a runoff that he is likely to lose; MAGA extremist and election-denier Kari Lake is losing in the AZ governor’s race as the votes are still being counted; Far-right Blake Masters is losing solidly in the AZ Senate race, and election-denier Don Bolduc lost the senate race in New Hampshire. Trump-backed Tudor Dixon lost the governor’s race in Michigan, and Dems took over the state legislature.
Republican Party leaders and pundits are calling for a change of the guard. Especially in light of DeSantis’s impressive performance. Many are publicly rebuking Trump and saying he is driving the Party over the cliff. Other than his Presidential win in 2016, as leader of the Republican Party Trump has overseen losses for his party in every election, including his own in 2020. Basically, he’s proving to be really good at losing and helping others to lose. How much longer will Republicans yoke themselves to the dangerous and reckless Bull in the China Shop, so to speak? Will the King of Losing, Lying, Crying, and Insurrections truly be put out to pasture this go around? Or will he once again beat back his critics and rivals and instead rise like a Phoenix to continue to scorch and burn down the Republican Party and the country at large? Party leadership has proven to be spineless so far at helping their constituents turn the page, so don’t hold your breath. The next few months will tell the story, possibly the final chapter in the Trump saga, regardless if he is indicted or not.